Evaluation of Agricultural Production Strategies in Libya Using Policy Evaluation Concepts (1980–2020)

Abstract

Through the study, it can be noted that the percentage of agricultural output contribution to the GDP increased from 1980 to 1988 at an increase rate estimated at 2.09%. This increase is attributed to a decrease in the GDP during the same period. Then, there was a slight decrease in the contribution of agricultural output to the GDP for the years 1989 and 1990, and then it began to rise to reach the maximum contribution of agriculture to the GDP during the past four decades in 1998 at about 10.6% at an increase rate estimated at 0.83% between 1990 and 1998. This gives an indication of the relative success during the period (1990-1998) in raising the contribution of the agricultural sector to the GDP. Thus, the agricultural policy may have succeeded in raising the percentage of agriculture’s contribution to the GDP, but it did not succeed in raising it to a large percentage that could be relied upon as one of the pillars of the national economy. During the following years, there was a decrease in the percentage of agriculture’s contribution to the GDP from 1998 to 2008 from About 10.6% to 2.09%, and then there were fluctuations in the contribution of the Libyan agricultural sector to the gross domestic product between decline and increase between the years (2008 - 2017) and starting from the year 2017 there was a sharp decline in the contribution of agriculture to the gross domestic product until it stabilized at 0.03% in the years 2019 and 2020, and this is attributed to the security situation in the country, and the equation of the general trend of agricultural production for the period (1980 - 2020) took an upward trend of 18.045 million dinars, and the correlation coefficient is within the limits of 0.4054, which is a direct correlation relationship below the average, and through the equation of the general trend of the relationship between agricultural production and domestic production for the period (1980 - 2000), it is noted that there is a direct relationship between Libyan agricultural production and domestic production by an amount of (0.12328) and it is also noted that there is no agricultural production achieved in the event that there is no domestic production achieved, meaning that there is a deficit In agricultural output, it amounted to 530.389 million dinars, and about 74.4% of the changes that occur in agricultural output were due to the growth factor in the gross output. From here, it can be concluded that during the first period (1980-2000), agricultural production depended to a large extent on the gross domestic product achieved, which are the years in which the Libyan state relied on the socialist system. The equation of the general trend of the relationship between agricultural output and gross domestic product for the second period (2001-2020) indicates the existence of an inverse relationship between Libyan agricultural output and gross domestic product by (0.001147-). It is also noted that there is an agricultural output achieved in the absence of a gross domestic product. When calculating the correlation coefficient, we find it within the limits of 0.4866) (-which is an inverse correlation relationship. From here, it can be concluded that during the second period, agricultural production did not depend to a large extent on the gross domestic product achieved, which are the years in which the Libyan state relied on the capitalist system. Changes are noted in production and productivity per hectare for a number of crops (cereals, legumes, vegetables and fruits), as it is noted that there has been an increase in grain production from 241.05 thousand tons to about 388.18 thousand tons, while productivity has increased from 668.97 kg per hectare from the average period (1980-1990) to 1081.67 kg per hectare for the average period (2010-2020) by an increase rate of up to 58.70%, and as for legume crops, there has been a decrease in their production from about 19.52 thousand tons with an average period (1980-1990) to 13.90 thousand tons with an average period (2010-2020) by an estimated decrease rate of about 10.84%, while productivity increased from 1222 kg per hectare to 5346.15 kg per hectare during the same period, and as for vegetable crops, productivity has increased During the study period, by an estimated percentage of about 75.08%, and finally, with regard to the fruit crop, there was a fluctuation between the study periods, and in general, there was a decrease during the period (1980-2020) from 406.51 thousand tons to 397.95 thousand tons, by a decrease rate estimated at about 2.11%, and there was also a decrease in productivity by 80.81%. It is noted that there was an increase in the total cultivated area at an increase rate estimated at about 12.73% during the period (1980 - 2020), and the growth rate of the cultivated area was estimated at about 0.655% with a variable average of 7.659 thousand hectares, and with regard to the equation of the general trend of the agricultural area, it took an upward trend of 14.59 thousand hectares, which shows the failure of agricultural policies to increase the agricultural area over four decades at a rate consistent with spending on the agricultural sector, and a decrease in the production of meat from cows is noted during the study period by about 85.93%, and with regard to the production of red meat (sheep and goats), it decreased by 22.38% during the same period, and finally, there was an increase in the production of camel meat by an increase rate estimated at about 489%, and it can be concluded that the agricultural policy failed to increase the production of beef and red meat during the study period, which led to a high increase in the prices of these meats by more than four times. Regarding the developments in foreign trade, which is the difference between agricultural exports and imports during the study period (1980-2020), the deficit in the foreign trade balance began to rise from about 979.150 million dollars in 1980 to 3362.30. Million dollars in 2020, and the lowest value of the deficit was in 1999, when it was 441.92 million dollars, and the highest value was in 2015, when it reached 3872.00 million dollars. The value of agricultural exports increased from 9.05 million dollars in 1980 to about 36.00 million dollars in 2020, an increase rate estimated at about 297.79%. As for agricultural imports, imports increased from about 979.150 million dollars in 1980 to about 3362.30 million dollars in 2020, an increase rate estimated at about 243.39%, and the equation of the general trend of the agricultural budget took an upward trend of 52.47 million dollars annually.