The impact of macroeconomic variables on food security in Libya, An econometric study during the period (2000-2024)

Abstract

This study aimed to measure the relationship between macroeconomic variables (inflation, exchange rate, GDP per capita, and public expenditure) and food security in Libya during the period (2000–2024), employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model (ARDL). The results indicated that the time series of the variables were non-stationary at level but became stationary after taking the first difference. The findings further revealed a long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables. The study demonstrated a significant negative effect of both public expenditure and inflation on food security in long- run. Conversely, food security exhibited a statistically significant positive relationship with both the exchange rate and average GDP per capita in Libya.

The results indicated that the model requires a relatively long adjustment period of approximately five years to return to long-run equilibrium following short-term shocks.

Finally, the diagnostic test results concluded that the model was free from econometric problems.