Measuring the impact of imports on non-oil economic growth in Libya, an Econometric Study during the Period 1990-2019, Co-Integration Approach and Error Correction Model
الملخص
This study attempted to test the import-led growth hypothesis by measuring and analyzing the relationship between imports and non-oil economic growth in Libya over the period (1990-2019). The study used the Granger cointegration methodology, an error correction model, and a causality test. The results of the unit root test revealed that the time series were non-stationary at the level, while they stabilized after taking the first differences. The study also found cointegration and a short- and long-term equilibrium relationship between the two model variables, in addition to a positive and statistically significant effect of imports on non-oil GDP. There is also a causal relationship from imports to non-oil GDP and from non-oil GDP to imports. Finally, the error correction results indicated that short-term imbalances require a period of adjustment and adjustment of one and a half years to return to equilibrium in the long term.
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