تحليل ظاهرة العجز التوأم في ظل المتغيرات النقدية والمالية في الاقتصاد الليبي خلال الفترة (1990-2022) "دراسة تحليلية قياسية"
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.58916/jhas.v10i2.725الكلمات المفتاحية:
العجز التوأم، عجز الحساب الجاري، عجز الموازنة العامة، ليبيا، (ARDL).الملخص
تبحث هذه الدراسة العلاقة بين عجز الحساب الجاري، وعجز الموازنة العامة في ظل بعض المتغيرات النقدية والمالية في الاقتصاد الليبي خلال الفترة (1990-2022) باستخدام نموذج قياسي يعتمد على اختبارات الحدود للتكامل المشترك (Bounds test)، ونموذج (ARDL) لتقدير العلاقة بين متغيرات الدراسة في الأجلين الطويل والقصير. وقد أظهرت النتائج وجود علاقة تكامل مشترك بين متغيرات الدراسة في الأجل الطويل، وأن عجز الحساب الجاري يتأثر إيجابيًا بعجز الموازنة العامة، وسلبيًا بكل من سعر الصرف الأجنبي، والإنفاق الحكومي، في حين أن تأثير الانفتاح التجاري لم يكن ذا دلالة إحصائية. كذلك أظهرت النتائج وجود علاقة سببية أُحادية الاتجاه بين عجز الحساب الجاري وعجز الموازنة العامة تتجه من عجز الموازنة العامة إلى عجز الحساب الجاري في الأجل القصير، وأن العلاقة السببية بينهما في الأجل الطويل كانت ثنائية الاتجاه.
التنزيلات
المراجع
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