Iranian foreign policy towards the Yemeni crisis

Abstract

This study analyzes the impact of Iran’s expansion in Yemen through its support for the Ansar Allah group (the Houthis) on the regional balance of power in the Arabian Gulf region during the period from 2015 to 2026. Starting from a central question regarding how Iran uses the Yemen card as a tool to destabilize the region and achieve its strategic objectives, the study relies on a dual theoretical framework that combines Kenneth Waltz’s balance of power theory and extended deterrence theory, and is based on a comparative quantitative-qualitative methodology that includes an analysis of Gulf military spending data, statistics on Houthi attacks, and the repercussions of the Red Sea crisis on international navigation. The study concluded that Iranian expansion has brought about fundamental shifts in the balance of power equation, most notably: an increase in Gulf military spending of over 45% between 2020 and 2025, the formation of new regional security frameworks, and a 50% decline in commercial ship traffic through the Suez Canal by early 2024. The research also concluded that the Iranian model based on proxy warfare has reached its strategic limits in light of the radical shifts the regional system underwent in 2026.