Armed conflicts in the Sahel region of Africa and their repercussions on irregular migration and European security (2015–2026)

Abstract

This study examines the impact of armed conflicts in the African Sahel on irregular migration and their implications for European security during the period 2015–2026. It is based on the central assumption that the escalation of armed conflicts, coupled with state fragility and expanding security vacuums, has significantly contributed to increasing irregular migration flows toward Europe, thereby generating growing security and political challenges for the European Union.

The study adopts a descriptive-analytical approach and draws upon a theoretical framework combining Securitization Theory, Regional Security Complex Theory, and the Fragile State Approach to explain the relationship between armed conflicts, irregular migration, and European security. The findings indicate that the persistence of armed conflicts in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso has intensified forced displacement, strengthened migrant smuggling networks and transnational organized crime, and transformed the Sahel into one of the most important regions of origin and transit for irregular migration toward Europe.

The study further reveals that increasing migration flows have prompted the European Union to strengthen border security policies, expand cooperation with countries of origin and transit, and adopt more restrictive migration management measures. Moreover, irregular migration has become increasingly securitized within European political and security discourse, being closely linked to concerns over border control, organized crime, and social stability. The study concludes that a growing interdependence exists between stability in the African Sahel and European security, highlighting the need to address the root causes of armed conflicts, promote sustainable development, and strengthen state institutions in the Sahel as essential conditions for reducing irregular migration and enhancing security on both sides of the Mediterranean.