Effects Climatic Changes on Crops Irrigation in Future for Libya A Case Study of SOFULJEEN Region.
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.58916/jhas.v9i5.540الكلمات المفتاحية:
Climatic Changes، Crops, Irrigation، SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5 scenarios، SOFULJEENالملخص
This research presents how climate change affects the water demands of SOFULJEEN Region most important food crops: three (wheat, tomato and potato) study examines how climate change may impact future irrigation requirements in SOFULJEEN Region using the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. for 2020s–2040s-2060s-2080s and 2100s were used to determine the patterns of temperature and rainfall in study area, The CROPWAT 8.0 model was employed to estimate reference evapotranspiration) ETo) and net irrigation water requirement (NIWR) for the key three crops wheat tomato S and potatoes, based on the predicted climate conditions. Five different scenarios for the three crops' future irrigation needs were calculated, compared to the current case (2020), with 2100s by under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5,The results displayed that the maximum temperatures increase ratio in 2100 will be 9.84% and 18.70% higher than in the current 2020. In SOFULJEEN Region that both short and long-term temperature increases are anticipated to be considerable. As a result, there will be reference evapotranspiration (ETo) increases, According to the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 for the 2040-2100.scenarios forecast annual average ETo increases of 0.9 mm/day (13.27%) and 1.59 mm/day (23.45%), respectively. Net irrigation water requirement (NIWR) and growth of irrigation water requirement (GIWR) million m3 (wheat, tomato s and potato) in SOFULJEEN Region were assessed for the current, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. For SSP5-8.5 the (NIWR) (million m3 )are expected for the 2100s to increase for crops three(wheat, tomato s and potato), 7191.24, 3383.39 and 1702.26 respectively, compared to the current (2020)scenario (6050.94 , 2457.94 and 1287.09 million m3) for three crops Previous.
التنزيلات
المراجع
Alghariani, M.S., Sagar, E.M., Bedair, H., Al-Quraishi, A.M.F. (2024). Google Earth Engine (GEE) to Detect Vegetation Cover Changes in Northwest of Libya. In: The Handbook of Environmental Chemistry. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/698_2024_1103.
International Organization for migration regional office for middle east and north Africa (2023) country report on migration, environment, and climate change in Libya, https://environmentalmigration.iom.int/sites/g/files/tmzbdl1411/files/documents/2024-03/libya-desk-review_final29.pdf.
Feng, G. ; Cobb, S. ; Abdo, Z. ; Fisher, D. ; Ouyang, Y. ; Adeli, A. and Jenkins, J. 2016. Trend Analysis and Forecast of Precipitation, Reference Evapotranspiration, and Rainfall Deficit in the Blackland Prairie of Eastern Mississippi, Journal of applied meteorology and climatology. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JAMC-D-15-0265.1.
Jonathan C. L. Normand , & Essam Heggy (2024). Assessing flash flood erosion following storm Daniel in Libya, Nature Communications | (2024) 15:6493. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-49699-8.
WRI, CAIT 2. 2017. Climate Analysis Indicators Tool: WRI’s Climate Data Explorer. Washington, DC: World Resources Institute. https://www.climatewatchdata.org.
. Iglesias, A.; Garrote, L. Adaptation strategies for agricultural water management under climate change in Europe. Agric. Water Manag. 2015, 155, 113–124. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2015.03.014
. Ritchie, H.; Roser, M. CO2 and Greenhouse Gas Emissions—OurWorld in Data. Available
online: https://ourworldindata.org / co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions (accessed on 18 December 2021).
. Kaini, S.; Gardner, T.; Sharma, A.K. Assessment of socio-economic factors impacting on the cropping intensity of an irrigation scheme in developing countries. Irrig. Drain. 2020, 69, 363–375. https://doi.org/10.1002/ird.2427.
Schilling, J.; Hertig, E.; Tramblay, Y.; Scheffran, J. Climate change vulnerability, water resources and social implications in North Africa. Reg. Environ. Chang. 2020, 20, 15. (https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-020-01597-7).
Masia S, Trabucco A, Spano D, Snyderm RL, Sušnik J, Marras S(2021) A modelling platform for climate change impact on local and regional crop water requirements. Agric Water Manag255:107005. https:// doi. org/ 10. 1016/j. agwat. 2021. 107005
El-Rawy, M.; Batelaan, O.; Al-Arifi, N.; Alotaibi, A.; Abdalla, F.; Gabr, M.E.(2023 ) Climate Change Impacts Semi-Arid Regions: A Case Study in Saudi Arabia. 15, 606 https://doi.org/10.3390/w15030606
Alotaibi M, Alhajeri NS, Al-Fadhli FM, Elgabri S, Gabr ME (2023) Impact of climate change on crop irrigation requirements in arid regions. Water Resour Manag 37:1965–1984. https:// doi. org/ 10. 1007/ s11269- 023- 03465-5.
Namdar R, Karami E, Keshavarz M (2021) Climate change and vulnerability the case of MENA countries. ISPRS Int J Geo-Inf 10:794. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi10110794.
Schwartz, J. How Much, Exactly, Will Greenhouse Gases Heat the Planet? Available online:https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/22/climate/global-warming-temperaturerange.html (accessed on 15 March 2022).
https://wmo.int/media/news/record-temperature-streak-continues-june.
El-Rawy, M.; Fathi, H.; Zijl, W.; Alshehri, F.; Almadani, S.; Zaidi, F.K.; Aldawsri, M.; Gabr, M.E(2023). Potential Effects of Climate Change on Agricultural Water Resources in Riyadh Region, Saudi Arabia, Sustainability, 15, 9513. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15129513
Penman–Monteith (1998) Crop evapotranspiration—guidelines for computing crop water requirements—FAO irrigation and drainage paper 56. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome
Salama MA, Yousef KM, Mostafa AZ (2015) Simple equation for estimating actual evapotranspiration using heat units for wheat in arid regions. J Radiat Res Appl Sci 8:418–427. https:// doi. org/10. 1016/j. jrras. 2015. 03. 002.
Khalil A, Essa YH, Abdel-Wahab M (2015) Evapotranspiration mapping over Egypt using MODIS/Terra satellite data. Int J Adv Res3:512–522.
Khaydar D, Chen X, Huang Y, Ilkhom M, Liu T, Friday O, Farkhod A, Khusen G, Gulkaiyr O (2021) Investigation of crop evapotranspiration and irrigation water requirement in the lower Amu Darya River Basin, Central Asia. J Arid Land 13:23–39
Smith M (1991) CROPWAT: manual and guidelines. FAO of UN, Rome.
Abdulmajid Z. A (2022). Characteristics of heat waves in the Bani Walid region for the period (1982 - 2022), (Climate changes in Libya (trends and implications) th7 Scientific Conference, College of Arts. https://su.edu.ly/research/index.php/conferences/arts/m7.
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) (2022) Land & water division, databases and software (CropWat). https:// www. fao. org/ land- water/ datab ases- andso ftware/ cropw at/ en/
Gabr ME (2021) Modelling net irrigation water requirements using FAO CROPWAT 8.0 and CLIMWAT 2.0: a case study of Tina Plain and East South El Kantara regions, North Sinai Egypt. Arch Agron Soil Sci 68:10. https://doi.org/10.1080/03650340.2021.1892650.
Sunil A, Deepthi B, Mirajkar AB et al (2021) Modeling future irrigation water demands in the context of climate change: a case study of Jayakwadi command area, India. Model Earth Syst Environ7:1963–1977. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40808-020-00955-y.
Gabr .M. E. (2023).impact of climatic changes on future irrigation water requirement in the Middle East and North Africa's region: a case study of upper Egypt, Applied Water Science. 13:158. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13201-023-01961-y.
Kaushika, G.; Arora, H.; Ks, H.P. Analysis of climate change effects on crop water availability for paddy, wheat and berseem. Agric. Water Manag. (2019), 225, 105734. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2019.105734.
Esteves, R.; Calejo, M.J.; Rolim, J.; Teixeira, J.L.; Cameira, M.R. Framework for Assessing Collective Irrigation Systems Resilience to Climate Change—The Maiorga Case Study. Agronomy (2023), 13, 661. https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy13030661,
Feng, X.; Wu, F.; Zai, S.; Wang, D.; Zhang, Y.; Chai, Q. Characteristics and Impacts of Water–Thermal Variation on Grain Yield in the Henan Province, China, on Multiple Time Scales. Agronomy (2023), 13, 429. https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy13020429.
التنزيلات
منشور
إصدار
القسم
كيفية الاقتباس
