A comparative Study to evaluate the Weibull Parameters under the influence of atmospheric stability conditions

Abstract

Analysing the wind speed distribution and the likelihood of its recurrence throughout the year is crucial for understanding the wind sources and their characteristics at a specific site. This initial and vital step assists in estimating the available energy and guides to the selection of suitable wind turbines and related equipment for wind farms. In this paper, wind speed data was collected over a one-year period in Magron city to evaluate the two Weibull parameters (shape and scale) using five different methods: graphical, empirical, moments, maximum likelihood, and energy pattern factor. These calculations were conducted under different atmospheric stability conditions namely stable, neutral, and unstable conditions. To assess the reliability of these methods, three statistical analyses were applied: root mean square error, correlation coefficient, and the Chi-Square Error. The accuracy of calculating Weibull parameters varies with season and atmospheric stability conditions. The empirical method demonstrates superior accuracy in estimating Weibull parameters for stable conditions during most seasons, while the maximum likelihood method performs well for unstable conditions, and the accuracy of neutral conditions varies depending on the season. Considering the varying accuracy of different methods across different atmospheric stability conditions and seasons, careful selection of appropriate methods is vital for reliable estimation of Weibull parameters and therefore, assessment of wind energy potential.