Future Forecasting of The Amount Gap of Meat in Libya Using ARIMA Model for The Period (2019-2026)

Abstract

The Study aimed to forecasting the food gap for total meat in Libya during the period (2019-2026) using the Box & Jenkins  method by choosing the best model from the estimated ARIMA Models , as the study shows that the amount of meat food gap during the period (1970-2018)  has taken an upward general trend  of 1576.24 tons per year from the average of 25885.22 tons, this is due  to low domestic production and increased amount of meat imports over the last decade. The study also shows after following the steps and stages of the (Box  & Jenkins) method of diagnosing and processing the data series and overcoming the problem of instability and determining the degree of integration (ARIMA) after taking the first difference is (I = 1) and the best model was chosen automatically that agreed (1.1.0) after arranging the candidate models according to the lowest value of the Akaike standard ascending, the predicted values showed that the food gap for total meat  continued to increase to about (132,704 tons) in 2024 and about (142,743 tons ) and (142,778 tons) in 2025 and 2026 respectively.